New York, NY, United States (AHN) – The battle to fill the top International Monetary Fund post vacated by the resignation of Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has apparently been reduced to a war between Europe and developing nations.

Mexico’s Central Bank Governor, Agustin Carstens, took the struggle to a higher level on Tuesday by seeking the vote of developing countries to counter the solid support enjoyed by French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde from European nations.

Even the U.S. is apparently siding with Europe’s choice in a tit-for-tat political arrangement to ensure Washington keeps its grip on the top spot at the World Bank and the number two post in IMF.

Carstens criticized European leaders for imposing Lagarde on the rest of the world. The governor said that if the selection of Strauss-Kahn’s replacement would be treated as “business as usual,” changes would never take place.

Carstens pointed out that although there was no final list of candidates yet for the IMF managing director post, Europe has made up its mind in backing Lagarde. The IMF will close application for the position on Friday.

Lagarde, however, is also courting the vote of developing nations despite being frontrunner of the race. She met with Indian officials as part of her world tour to seek their support for her candidacy. The French minister even promised to represent the needs of emerging economies by partly “becoming an Indian.”

Lagarde will next try to convince Chinese officials to back her up, based on her merit. Carstens is holding his global tour and plans to court the votes of Indian, Chinese and Japanese officials.

Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said he agreed with Lagarde that the next IMF managing director should be picked based on merit and not geography. But he declined to indicate if India would support Lagarde or Carstens.

The IMF is expected to name Strauss-Kahn’s successor by the end of June. Another rival of Carstens and Lagarde for the position is South African former Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.

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United Arab Emirates (TML) – Emaar Properties PJSC, the sprawling Dubai real estate developer, had a near-death experience this past week when its chairman made remarks hinting that it might increase its stake in its troubled Amlak Finance unit, a move that would saddle Emaar’s balance sheet with huge debt.

Emaar quickly denied any move was afoot to boost its holding in Amlak, telling the Dubai Finance Market that it had considered converting part of the debt to equity but was now weighing “other better and viable options.” Emaar’s shares ended a decline of nearly two weeks on Sunday to close 0.6% higher at 3.57 dirhams ($0.97)

Emaar, whose projects include the El-Burj tower, the world’s tallest skyscraper, isn’t yet out of the hole. The debt at Amlak, in which it has a 48% interest, remains unresolved, and its MFG joint venture in India continues to weigh on Emaar’s cashflow. Emaar itself faces a potentially rocky transition from reliance on Dubai real estate to a more balanced international portfolio.

“To be very honest, when I saw the first release I was anxious,” Yazan Abdeen, Dubai-based fund manager for ING Investment Bank, told The Media Line.

Abdeen said that after discussions with Emaar management he was convinced Chairman Mohammed Ali Alabbar’s remarks were misinterpreted by local media. “As far as I am concerned the Emaar investment story is still solid.”

While its El-Barj Tower has come to symbolize the excesses of Dubai’s once red-hot property market, Emaar has succeeding in remaining profitable even as home and office valuations collapsed and Dubai’s biggest companies were forced to seek relief from debts. Emaar, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest property developer, posted a gross profit of 3.4 billion dirhams in the first nine months of this year, a 25% increase from the same period in 2009.

Unlike much of Dubai, where the government and state-owned companies amassed a combined debt of more than $110 billion, Emaar financed its vast construction projects with minimum leverage.

But if the company is forced to convert loans it made to Amlak – once one of the Gulf’s biggest Islamic home-finance companies — into shares, its stake would grow to 66%, Majed Azzam, a property analyst at HC Brokerage, estimated in a report December 16. That would force Emaar to list all of Amlak’s debt on its books, raising Emaar’s net debt to 17.6 billion dirhams from 6.7 billion dirhams. If Amlak ends up writing off part of its loan book, property portfolios and other assets, its total capitalization needs could reach 4.6 billion dirhams or more, Azzam estimated.

Emaar also has made a 1.3 billion dirhams loan to its Indian joint venture, Emaar MGF Land, which the latter is supposed to pay from the proceeds of a planned initial public offering. Three previous attempts to conduct an IPO have failed, and sentiment for new shares remains weak while Emaar MGF has suffered “reputational damage” from problems with the athletes’ village it constructed for the 2010 Commonwealth Games, Azzam said. If the loans aren’t repaid, Emaar may end up holding 51% of the joint venture and consolidating all its debt on its books as well, he said.

Emaar is counting on a successful diversification of its real estate portfolio, a move that would not only provide more varied income streams but also enable it to raise capital outside of the UAE.

Alabbar said in November that he expected the property surplus in Dubai to ease in another 20 months. But even with conditions improving, Emaar aims to reduce its exposure to the tiny city-state’s real estate market. He said the company aims to generate nearly half its revenue from outside in Dubai from projects it is developing in Syria, Lebanon, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt within the next few years. Today, 80% comes from Dubai.

“Emaar’s contribution from international revenues is increasing by the day,” said ING’s Abdeen. “Emaar will eventually be able to tap the Indian, Egyptian and Syrian markets. They can tap the market not only as real estate-building company but as a mall owner and operator. Their diversification of the business in Emaar, in addition to geographical diversification, is a major de-risking component of their future cash generation capabilities.”

HC’s Azzam, however, warned that international market will give Emaar lower volume and profit margins. Deliveries of new units will drop 44% in 2011. While they will pick up again in the next two years, revenue will remain much below what 2010 estimated levels. HC forecast Emaaar’s revenue at about 11.3 billion dirhams this year, falling to 6.6 billion in 2011 and 7.5 billion in 2012.

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